Republicans Jump Out to an Early Election Day Turnout Lead in Florida as Moody Defends Rubio's Old Seat
Florida Republicans got an encouraging early signal on Tuesday morning as the first Election Day turnout figures began to circulate.
According to numbers posted on X by the Open Source Zone account, 19,428 Republicans had voted in person in the opening hours, about 53.2 percent of the early Election Day total. Democrats accounted for 9,040 voters, or 24.7 percent.
Independents made up 6,989 ballots, roughly 19.1 percent, meaning Republican turnout in that early snapshot topped Democrats and independents combined.
The figures are a small, early slice of a statewide vote that will run into the millions, and they reflect party registration rather than how anyone actually voted. Still, they fit the pattern Florida has shown throughout the cycle.
A Firewall Built Before Election Day
Before polls opened, Florida had already logged 5,254,007 early and mail ballots, according to a November 1 breakdown published by the Election Data Guy account.
That tally assigned 2,129,541 ballots to registered Republicans, 1,980,166 to registered Democrats and 1,144,300 to voters outside the two major parties. The result was a Republican cushion of 149,375 ballots heading into Tuesday.
The same analyst noted that the party mix, roughly 40.5 percent Republican to 37.7 percent Democratic, was softer for the GOP than in 2022 and 2024, when Republicans made up about 42.9 percent of the early vote. The analyst projected a Republican vote range of 48 to 54 percent and statewide turnout near 50 percent.
Moody Fights to Keep Rubio's Old Seat
The top race on the ballot is a special Senate election. Republican Sen. Ashley Moody, appointed by Gov. Ron DeSantis after Marco Rubio left the Senate to become secretary of state, faces Democratic state Rep. Angie Nixon and independent Neil Gillespie.
The winner will serve out the rest of Rubio's term, which runs until January 2029. Moody served as Florida's attorney general before her appointment and built her profile on conservative legal fights and public safety work.
Federal filings through October 14 showed Moody raising about $14.52 million and spending roughly $13.71 million, leaving $816,355 in the bank. Nixon reported about $11.32 million raised, $8.05 million spent and $3.27 million on hand.
A State That Has Moved Right
Florida was once the country's most famous swing state, but recent elections have tilted it firmly toward Republicans. President Donald Trump, whose Mar-a-Lago estate sits in Palm Beach, carried the state with about 56 percent of the vote in 2024, beating Kamala Harris by roughly 13 points.
Sen. Rick Scott also won reelection that year, and Democrats have not won a Florida Senate race since Bill Nelson's victory in 2012.
The national picture raises the stakes. Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so Democrats need a net gain of four to take control, with Vice President JD Vance breaking ties. Holding Florida would let Republicans focus resources on more competitive states.
Money is not expected to be a problem for the GOP. The Republican National Committee raised about $341.5 million this cycle through October 14 and reported about $76.2 million in cash, while the National Republican Congressional Committee entered October with roughly $61.3 million.
The Associated Press has reported that Trump-aligned groups spent nearly $277 million since early September backing Republican candidates, including a $200 million transfer from MAGA Inc. to No Going Back PAC.
Polls in most of Florida close at 7 p.m. Eastern time, with the western Panhandle closing an hour later.